PETALING JAYA: Medical experts say it will be hard to bring down the Covid-19 infection rate in a short time in Selangor, after the health ministry hinted that the conditional movement control order might be lifted if the rate is brought down in the next seven days.
As of now, the current infection rate (R0, pronounced R naught) is approximately at 1.5 in Selangor.
Speaking to FMT, former deputy health minister Dr Lee Boon Chye said the required target would only be possible to reach if the infected cases were in a closed community such as detention centres or prisons.
“If there is significant community spread like what is happening in Selangor and Kuala Lumpur, it would take at least four to six weeks to reach 0.3, even with the best measures,” he said.
Previously, during the beginning of the movement control order (MCO) on March 18, the R0 value was 3.5. It was lowered to 0.3 in May due to action taken by the government as well as compliance from members of the public, health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said.
Lee said: “A patient who is infected by Covid-19 can take up to 14 days before developing any symptoms and the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests can still show negative results up to eight days after infection.
“Hence there is a lag period between effective control and the reduction of confirmed cases.”
He said daily new cases would continue to rise despite the gradual drop in R0. “The number of active cases will only begin to decline after the R0 reaches below one.”
When asked if the CMCO in Selangor should be extended or upgraded, he said: “The intensity of CMCO is dependent on the severity and distribution of the transmission of virus in the community. For this, decisions have to be guided by data and science.
“For that, I strongly urge the health ministry to share all available data with the public, especially with the state governments, universities, NGOs and others.”
The Malaysian Medical Association said it expects the number of daily cases to remain high because of the backlog in test results from the situation in Sabah.
“It is possible that the R0 can be reduced but this will depend on how successful we are in reducing the density in areas under CMCO and the level of compliance to the SOPs.
“The science is simple. When we reduce density and human to human encounters, we reduce the opportunity for the virus to spread or reduce hosts for the virus. The duration of these human to human encounters are also a factor.
“A five minute visit to the shops to buy a newspaper will have less risk compared to a person standing on a crowded train for an hour,” MMA president Dr Subramaniam Muniandy told FMT.
He also agreed with the government’s decision to implement the work-from-home directive for workers in Selangor.
“Selangor and Kuala Lumpur are the county’s biggest commercial and industrial hubs and have the highest populations in the country. If more people work from home, I am confident the R0 will be lowered and the curve will flatten much quicker,” he said.
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