GEORGE TOWN: Two medical experts said the country’s increasing laid-back attitude in not following SOPs might make fighting off Covid-19 difficult.
This comes on the back of a health ministry warning on an increase in the infectivity rate, or R0 (R-naught) number, which has passed the critical level.
The ministry said the R0 number is at 1.72, passing the critical level of 1.6. Two weeks ago, it was 0.72, indicating a big jump and spelling trouble for the future. The infectivity level had once dipped to 0.32 before in the early days of the lockdown.
If the R0 number is lower than 1, then the virus spread will be slower and the healthcare system will not be overwhelmed, giving patients a better chance at recovery.
If the R0 is at 1, it means every 10 people who get infected with the virus can be expected to transmit to 10 others.
Experts told FMT the R0 number should be at the forefront of the country’s Covid-19 battle as a high number meant the virus spread was now higher than usual.
They said if SOPs such as physical distancing, wearing of face masks and observing hand hygiene did not improve, a stricter lockdown might be needed.
One expert said the Sabah election might have to be postponed if there was no improvement in the state in the coming weeks. There are now two red zones in the state.
Virologist Dr Lam Sai Kit said the increased Covid-19 cases in the past few days were likely due to the false sense of security among the people which led to fewer people following the SOPs.
“Many think we are out of the woods because the number of daily cases has remained low. But the last few days have shown that we are far from that.
“We must constantly remind ourselves that we must continue to follow the SOPs as long as the virus is still around.
“If today’s tight SOPs in the recovery movement control order (RMCO) are not followed, then the authorities might be forced to push for a more enhanced MCO,” the Universiti Malaya emeritus professor told FMT.
Low R0 number will ensure vaccine is effective
Besides a lockdown, a larger infectivity rate will mean that the virus might be even more difficult to eradicate or bring under control in the long run.
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s virologist Dr Kumitaa Theva Das said the R0 number was an indicator of the country’s recovery from Covid-19.
She said a low R0 number would ensure that a vaccine would be effective in reducing cases, with the larger population free from Covid-19.
This meant there would be fewer people to vaccinate and recovery could be quicker.
Kumitaa said the general R0 number at present as per WHO data was about 2 to 2.5. In the early days of the outbreak in Wuhan, the R0 was about 5.7.
“In Malaysia, at its peak, we reached an R0 of 3.5, but brought it down to 0.3, proving that with the MCO and strict SOPs, we have successfully reduced the spread of Covid-19,” she said.
Sabah and illegal immigrants a big concern
Meanwhile, Lam, who is credited with discovering the Nipah virus, said the question that needs to be asked is why cases are in double digits or triple digits with new clusters occurring despite having SOPs in place.
He said the 300-odd cases reported at immigration depots in the Klang Valley were a cause for concern, and having a moratorium on illegal immigrants could reduce the overcrowding problem at these depots.
He said the other place to watch was Sabah, which was set to have its state election soon. He said the state’s numbers ought to be brought down significantly if the polls were to go on.
“We do not like to see a situation where the daily number of cases continues to surge, calling into question the need to postpone the election later this month,” he said.
To stop the increase, Lam said those who are stubborn in complying with the SOPs, especially those attending crowded events where physical distancing is difficult or impossible, ought to be punished.
“Malaysians who are following the SOPs diligently should be congratulated for keeping us safe.”
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