Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s Gabungan Rakyat Sabah has won at the Sabah state elections but it might be too early for them to celebrate.
While on the campaign trail, Muhyiddin repeatedly told Sabahans that the state would reap the benefits of progress and development if the state government was aligned with the federal government that he heads.
On the other hand Warisan Plus campaigned on a platform of Sabah unity and asked for a strong mandate so that it could better fight for the restoration of Sabah’s rights as stated in the Malaysia Agreement 1963.
In the end, the number of voters who desire development exceeded – but not by much – those who wanted Shafie Apdal to continue as chief minister.
GRS scraped through to a majority, winning 38 of the 73 Sabah state legislative assembly seats. Warisan secured 32 while Independents won three seats.
A total of 447 candidates from 17 parties and Independents slugged it out in the state elections, held after Shafie advised the governor to dissolve the state assembly following former chief minister Musa Aman’s claim of a majority in the assembly.
As expected, the main battle was between Warisan Plus and GRS.
Warisan Plus comprises Warisan, DAP, Amanah, PKR and Upko. GRS is made up of the Sabah BN (Umno, Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah and MCA); Perikatan Nasional (PPBM, Sabah Progressive Party, STAR and PAS); and Parti Bersatu Sabah.
After the polls, will they switch sides?
GRS has enough seats to form a government but it does not have a commanding majority. We know from experience that Sabah is infamous for its “jumping” politicians, or, to put it crudely, for its “political frogs”.
There is the possibility that some from GRS may cross to Shafie’s side, or vice versa.
The three Independents who won will be in great demand.
GRS may form the government but there is no guarantee it will last until the 15th General Election. If enough elected representatives cross to Warisan Plus in a few months or even a year, Shafie will be back.
Also, we will see some infighting as PPBM and Umno jostle for the post of chief minister.
Muhyiddin had earlier hinted that PPBM Sabah chief Hajiji Mohd Noor would become chief minister if GRS won the election but Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is pushing for state BN chief Bung Moktar Radin.
We can anticipate more trouble between PPBM and Umno when the parliamentary and national general election is called. PPBM’s seats are almost all former Umno seats, as most PPBM MPs jumped from Umno to PPBM. Umno would want to contest in those seats again.
Any tussle in the general election for parliamentary seats between PPBM and Umno is sure to impact state politics in Sabah.
Given all these factors, we can expect a period of political uncertainty, even instability, in Sabah.
How does Muhyiddin fare?
How does the result impact national politics, especially Muhyiddin’s position?
Muhyiddin had told voters during the campaign that the result of the Sabah election could decide when the next general election is to be held.
If Muhyiddin keeps his word, it follows from the GRS victory that he could advise the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve Parliament before its term officially ends in mid-September 2023.
He is already under pressure to call for early polls from allies Umno and PAS. Added to that, earlier this week, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim claimed he had the needed majority of MPs to form the government. He asked Muhyiddin to step aside for him.
Umno president Zahid later admitted that some of his party’s MPs had indeed said they’d back Anwar for prime minister.
Anwar is waiting to have an audience with the King but it is not likely to be held in the next few days at least, as the King is in hospital.
Muhyiddin is surely using this breathing space to negotiate with Zahid and bring Umno MPs back in line. The price could be high though.
The manoeuvrings by PKR, Umno and others appear to be aimed at squeezing Muhyiddin so that he is forced to hand over power to Anwar or advise the King to call for fresh elections. There can be no doubt that PKR prefers the first option and Umno the second.
Potential for a PPBM-Umno fallout
Since the Sabah victory can be seen as an endorsement of Muhyiddin’s leadership, it is likely that at least some of those who said they’d back Anwar will now back off.
Muhyiddin may now be more confident about pulling off a win in federal elections, and his allies may now be more willing to fall in line. But then GRS only achieved a narrow victory in Sabah and he may think twice about risking an early general election.
First there is the issue of seat allocations to be settled. Both Umno and PPBM appeal to the same segment of the voting population and they would want to contest the same seats. Also, many Umno members are sore with the MPs who quit Umno to form PPBM or who left the party after Pakatan Harapan took over Putrajaya.
All these issues hold the potential for a fallout between PPBM and Umno.
However, if Muhyiddin has the agreement of his allies to continue as prime minister after GE15, with the assurance of PPBM being given a sizeable number of seats to contest, he is likely to hold the general election earlier than 2023.
Muhyiddin had looked extremely vulnerable, earlier this week. But Sabahans have thrown him a lifeline, providing him some time and strengthening his hand.
The real winner in Sabah is not GRS or the people of Sabah: it is Muhyiddin.
Unless, of course, Anwar can show that he, indeed, has majority support in the Dewan Rakyat, and the King then decides not to call for fresh elections, given the Covid-19 pandemic.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.
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