PETALING JAYA: A political analyst says he believes MIC’s decision not to join Perikatan Nasional (PN) is part of a wider restructuring of Malay politics, particularly the powerplay between Umno and PPBM.
James Chin of the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute said it was not surprising that MIC had decided to stick with Umno given their long-standing alliance forged over 60 years ago.
“They have no other place to go really, the reason they can win the seats they contest is the Malay votes from Umno supporters,” he told FMT.
Last week, MIC retracted its application to join PN, the loose coalition comprising several political parties driven by PPBM.
The decision by MIC, a Barisan Nasional component, was based on Umno’s decision not to join PN.
Elaborating on the restructuring of Malay politics, Chin said the Malay elite circle was getting wider, not just because PPBM had entered the field once only dominated by Umno and PAS, but also because of Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s new party Pejuang.
He said PPBM was undergoing restructuring itself with former PKR deputy president Mohamed Azmin Ali’s faction joining them, while it was likely that former youth and sports minister Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman would form a new youth-based party.
He said non-Malay parties would typically align themselves with the most successful Malay party and this would be the case after the next general election.
“Before the election, traditional alliances will prevail, after the election the non-Malay parties will lean towards the Malay party with the most MPs.”
In any case, Chin said, whether MIC, or MCA for that matter, opted to remain in BN or join PN would be inconsequential as neither party can deliver on the non-Malay votes.
“At this point in time, the Chinese and Indian votes will likely go to Pakatan Harapan. Of course, if PN can see that the economy recovers, they will win more non-Malay votes in the next GE”.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Azmi Hassan, however, does not see any Umno-PPBM powerplay, believing that MIC’s decision to opt out of joining PN was likely only because of Umno’s reluctance to joining the pact.
He said it also made sense for MIC to stick with BN as they could offer them a better deal where seat allocations are concerned.
But he too believes it would not make a difference to PPBM or Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin as MIC’s political clout was “very negligible”.
“MIC needs Perikatan Nasional more than Perikatan Nasional needs MIC.
“It won’t matter much whether MIC or MCA or Gerakan is with PN or if PPBM has its own non-Malay wing as the bulk of non-Malay votes will be won by either DAP or PKR,” he said.
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